While seeking to verify the accuracy, or at least the source of the latest Unemployment Figures, I found this:

November 3, 2006 These Strange Employment Numbers

Each month’s employment report grows increasingly bizarre. First, the government suddenly discovered 800,000 Americans who were employed yet the Feds somehow missed them. The details on that still haven’t been released.

Today we’re told that the nonfarm payroll number for August was revised higher by 42,000. The number for September was adjusted higher by 139,000. Plus, the economy added 132,000 new jobs last month. Add it all up, and the unemployment rate for October is now down to 4.415% which is lower than it was eight years ago.

I’m not sure why anyone pays attention to these numbers. I don’t see any value in them. 

There is no need to verify the accuracy of the numbers. It is a lot like trying to get yesterday’s meringue to stand up straight.

Sound familiar? Of course it does.

This is an exercise that is repeated every month:

  • Publish whatever is necessary to support the current talking points.
  • Revise all the numbers a week later, supposedly to reflect reality.
  • If they are worse, publish on page nineteen, or not at all.
  • If they are better, “hold the presses!” – page one – banner headline.

When you see the next batch of fuzzy math, ask yourself a few questions:

  • Does this include the people whose claims have run out?
  • The number who were refused benefits?
  • The number who get reduced benefits?
  • The number who were replaced by illegal immigrants?
  • If these figures are based on IRS Form 941 (Employer’s Quarterly Federal Tax Return), where is the need to revise them next week?
  • Better yet, ask the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Your elected representative should be able to put you in touch. Maybe not.

Dan Martin: dlmjunk@meltel.net A semi-retired estate planner and tax preparer,
determined to help people understand how numbers affect every day of their lives.
Comments, questions, or clarifications are welcomed.

Posted by edelfenbein at November 3, 2006 10:56 AM” here: 
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/index.html